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Umngcipheko wehlabathi wehlile kwiinyanga zokugqibela zika-2019, ngokovavanyo lomngcipheko welizwe le-Euromoney, njengoko iimpawu zenkqubela phambili ziye zavela ukuze kupheliswe ingxabano yorhwebo yase-China-US, ukuhla kwamandla emali, unyulo lwazisa iziphumo ezithile ngakumbi, kwaye abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo bajikela kumanyathelo okuvuselela. ukuxhasa ukukhula koqoqosho.
Umndilili ophakathi womngcipheko wehlabathi jikelele uphuculwe ukusuka kwikota yesithathu ukuya kweyesine njengoko ukuzithemba kweshishini kuzinzile kwaye imingcipheko yezopolitiko izolile, nangona ibingaphantsi kwama-50 kumanqaku angama-100 anokubakho, apho ibihlala khona ukusukela kwintlekele yezemali yehlabathi ka-2007-2008.
Amanqaku aphantsi abonisa ukuba kusekho ukungonwabi okuhle kumbono womtyali-mali wehlabathi, ngokhuseleko kunye nokutshintsha kwemozulu kubeka isithunzi, ingxaki yaseHong Kong iqhubeleka, unyulo lwase-US lusondele kunye nemeko kunye ne-Iran phakathi kwezinye izinto ezininzi ezigcina umhlaba. ubushushu bomngcipheko bunyukile okwangoku.
Iingcali ziye zathobisa uninzi lwe-G10 ngo-2019, kuquka iFransi, iJamani, i-Italiya, iJapan, i-UK kunye ne-US, njengoko iingxabano zorhwebo ziphazamisa ukusebenza kwezoqoqosho kunye noxinzelelo lwezopolitiko lwanda-kuquka ubunzima be-Brexit obubangela olunye unyulo jikelele-nangona imeko izinzile kwikota yesine.
Ukukhula koqoqosho loqoqosho oluqhubela phambili lwehla kunyaka wesibini olandelelanayo, lwehla ngaphantsi kwe-2% ngokwenyani, ngokwe-IMF, ngenxa yokhuseleko phakathi kwe-US ne-China kwelinye icala, kunye ne-US kunye ne-EU kwelinye.
Amanqaku asemngciphekweni aye aqatsela eLatin America, ngokuhla kusenzeka eBrazil, eChile, e-Ecuador naseParaguay kwiinyanga zokugqibela zika-2019, ngokuyinxenye eqhutywa kukungazinzi kwezentlalo.
Ubunzima boqoqosho lwaseArgentina kunye neziphumo zonyulo zikwangoyiki abatyali-zimali njengoko ilizwe liqalisa ukuhlengahlengisa amatyala.
Abahlalutyi bawathoba amanqaku abo kwezinye iimarike ezisahlumayo nezinemida, kuquka iIndiya, i-Indonesia, iLebhanon, iMyanmar (phambi konyulo lwalo nyaka), uMzantsi Korea (nawo ujongene nonyulo ngo-Epreli), kunye neTurkey, njengoko ukuzithemba kubume bezopolitiko noqoqosho kwehla. .
Amanqaku eHong Kong ehle ngakumbi, njengoko uqhanqalazo lungabonakalisi zimpawu zokuthomalalisa kulandela iinzuzo ezinkulu zabagqatswa be-pro-demokhrasi kunyulo lwebhunga lesithili ngoNovemba.
Ngokusetyenziswa, ukuthengisa ngaphandle kunye nosediving notyalo-mali, kunye nokufika kwabakhenkethi behla, i-GDP inokuba yehle ngokwenyani nge-1.9% kulo nyaka uphelileyo ngelixa uqikelelo lukhula nge-0.2% ngo-2020 ngokwe-IMF.
Ikamva laseHong Kong njengendawo yoshishino kunye neziko lezemali liza kutshabalala ngenxa yegridlock yezopolitiko ukholelwa ukuba uFriedrich Wu, igalelo lophando lwe-ECR olusekelwe kwiYunivesithi yaseNanyang Technology eSingapore.
“Abaqhankqalazi bathathe indlela 'yonke-okanye-nto' ('Iimfuno eziHlanu, hayi enye iNcinci').Endaweni yokunika la mabango, acela umngeni kumalungelo okuzimela eBeijing, ndiyakholelwa ukuba iBeijing endaweni yoko izoqinisa iintambo zayo eHong Kong.
Kumba wolongamo, uWu uthi iBeijing ayisoze yalalanisa nokuba ibuhlungu kangakanani na iziphumo.Ngaphandle koko, iHong Kong ayisenguye 'irhanisi elibeka amaqanda egolide', ucebisa oko.
“Ukusuka kwizibuko leekhonteyina elihamba phambili ehlabathini ngowama-2000, iHong Kong ngoku iye yehla yaya kutsho kwisixhenxe, emva kweShanghai, Singapore, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Shenzhen, Busan neGuangzhou;kwaye inani lesibhozo, iQingdao, likhula ngokukhawuleza kwaye liya kudlula kwiminyaka emibini ukuya kwemithathu.”
Ngokukwanjalo, ngokutsho kwamva nje, iSalathiso saMaziko eZimali eLondon ngoSeptemba ka-2019, ngelixa i-HK yayisekwindawo yesithathu, iShanghai yanyukela kwindawo yesihlanu ukodlula iTokyo, ngelixa iBeijing neShenzhen bezibekwe kwindawo yesixhenxe neyesithoba ngokulandelelanayo.
“Indima ye-HK njengonxibelelwano lwezoqoqosho/yezemali phakathi kwelizwe elikhulu nehlabathi liphela iyancipha ngokukhawuleza.Yiyo loo nto iBeijing ikwazi ukuthatha isikhundla esingqongqo ngakumbi kubaqhankqalazi, utshilo uWu.
Ngokuphathelele iTaiwan, wongezelela, uphuhliso lwezopolitiko eHong Kong luya kuqina isimo sengqondo sabo ngokuchasene nobudlelwane obusondeleyo kunye neChina, nangona uqoqosho lwaseHong Kong lungayi kuba nefuthe elikhulu kuqoqosho lwaseTaiwan, oludityaniswe ngakumbi nelizwe. .
Ekhuthazwa koku komelela kwezoqoqosho, inqaku lomngcipheko laseTaiwan liphuculwe kwikota yesine, uphando lubonisa.
“Iinkampani ezininzi zezizwe ngezizwe ezinekomkhulu lengingqi eHong Kong ziya kuthathela ingqalelo ukufudusa iindawo zazo zokuhlala ziye eSingapore kwaye abantu abanexabiso eliphezulu baya kupaka inxalenye yobutyebi babo kwicandelo lezemali elilawulwa kakuhle laseSingapore kunye nemarike yepropathi.”
U-Tiago Freire, omnye onegalelo kuphando, onamava okusebenza e-China nase-Singapore, ulumke ngakumbi.Uxela ukuba ngelixa iSingapore iya kuzuza kwiinkampani ezithile ezihambisa imisebenzi yazo ukusuka eHong Kong ukuya eSingapore, ngokukodwa iinkampani zemali, akakholelwa ukuba "ibekwe kakuhle njengeHong Kong ukuba isebenze njengesango lokuya eChina kwiinkampani zangaphandle".
Amanqaku eSingapore ade ehla kwikota yesine, ikakhulu okubangele ukuthotywa komgangatho wedemographics factor, esinye sezalathi ezininzi zesakhiwo kuvavanyo.
“Kwikota yokugqibela sibone uphuhliso oluthi lubeke uxinzelelo olukhulu kuzinzo lwedemografi yase-Singapore”, utshilo uFreire.Kwicala lokuzala, sibone urhulumente esungula inkqubo entsha yokuxhasa ukuya kuthi ga kwi-75% yeendleko zonyango lwe-IVF kwizibini zaseSingapore.Ngelishwa, oku kubonakala ngathi linyathelo elibonisa ukuba urhulumente uzama konke okusemandleni ukuphucula izinga lokuchuma, kwaye ayisosisombululo esisebenzayo kule ngxaki, njengoko kungenakwenzeka ukuba kube nesiphumo esivakalayo. "
Urhulumente ukwazama ukulwa nokunyanzelwa kwabantu abavela kwamanye amazwe kunye noqhanqalazo lwamaxesha athile ngokunciphisa abantu abafudukela eSingapore."Umzekelo, urhulumente waseSingapore unciphisa inani labaphambukeli abasebenza kwiinkampani ezithile ukusuka kwi-40% ukuya kwi-38% yabasebenzi babo ngo-2020."
Uphando nangona kunjalo lubonisa ukuba iimarike ezikhulayo ezikhulayo kunokuba zingabhaliswanga ukuphuculwa kwekota yesine - amazwe angama-80 akhuselekile xa kuthelekiswa ne-38 ibe yi-riskier (ezinye zingatshintshi) - enye yezona zinto ziphawulekayo yiRashiya.
Ukubuya kwayo kuhla kwizinto ezahlukeneyo, ngokutsho kukaDmitry Izotov, umphandi ophezulu kwiziko lophando lwezoqoqosho FEB RAS.
Enye ngokuqinisekileyo lixabiso eliphezulu leoli, ukonyusa ingeniso yenkampani yeoli kunye nokuvelisa intsalela kwimali karhulumente.Ngozinzo olukhulu lwezinga lotshintshiselwano, ingeniso yomntu inyukile, kunye nokusetyenziswa.
I-Izotov iphinda iphawule ukuphucuka kozinzo kurhulumente ngenxa yotshintsho oluncinci kubasebenzi kunye nokwehla komsebenzi woqhanqalazo, kunye nozinzo lwebhanki oluvela kwiintshukumo zokujongana namatyala amabi.
“Ukusukela kweyeDwarha kulo nyaka uphelileyo kufunwa iibhanki ukuba zibale inqanaba lomthwalo wetyala kumxhasi ngamnye ofuna ukuboleka imali, nto leyo ethetha ukuba kunzima ukufumana imali-mboleko.Ngapha koko, iibhanki azinangxaki yokungabi namali, kwaye akufuneki zitsale iidipozithi ngomlinganiselo omkhulu. ”
UPanayotis Gavras, enye ingcaphephe yaseRashiya eyintloko yomgaqo-nkqubo kunye neqhinga kwiBhanki yoRhwebo kunye noPhuhliso lweBhanki yoLwandle oluMnyama, iphawula ukuba kukho iindawo zobuthathaka malunga namatyala, ukukhula ngokugqithisileyo kwetyala kunye neemali-mboleko ezingasebenziyo, ezishiya iRashiya ibonakaliswe kwimeko yezoqoqosho. umothuko.Kodwa uthi: “Urhulumente ubenenzondelelo ekugcineni ezo zalathi ziphambili ziphantsi kolawulo kunye/okanye zihamba kwicala elichanekileyo iminyaka eliqela.
"Uhlahlo lwabiwo mali lulungile, kwindawo ethile phakathi kwe-2-3% ye-GDP, amanqanaba etyala likarhulumente akwi-15% ye-GDP, apho ngaphantsi kwesiqingatha setyala langaphandle, kwaye amatyala angaphandle abucala nawo aya ehla, hayi kancinci. ngenxa yemigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente kunye nenkuthazo kwiibhanki kunye neefemu zaseRashiya. "
I-Kenya, iNigeria kunye noninzi lwababoleki base-Afrika engaphantsi kweSahara, kubandakanywa ne-Ethiopia ekhulayo kunye noMzantsi Afrika, zaphuculwa kwikota yesine kunye neendawo zeCaribbean, iCIS kunye nempuma yeYurophu, equka iBulgaria, iCroatia, iHungary, iPoland kunye Romaniya.
Ukukhula koMzantsi Afrika ngokuyinxenye kubangelwa kukuphucula uzinzo kwimali yerandi ngokuqina ngasekupheleni konyaka, kwakunye nokuphucula imeko yezopolitiko phantsi komongameli uCyril Ramaphosa xa kuthelekiswa nowandulelayo.
E-Asia, amanqaku omngcipheko aphuculwe e-China (i-bounce encinci evela ngokuyinxenye kuhlaziyo lwerhafu kunye necandelo lezemali), kunye ne-Philippines, i-Thailand ne-Vietnam eziqhayisa ngokukhula okuqinileyo kunye nokuxhamla kwiinkampani ezisuka e-China ukunqanda intlawulo yokohlwaya.
Uphando lomngcipheko lwe-Euromoney lubonelela ngesikhokelo esiphendulayo ekutshintsheni iimbono zabahlalutyi abathatha inxaxheba kumacandelo omabini amacandelo emali kunye nangaphandle kwezemali, egxininisa kuluhlu lwezinto eziphambili zezoqoqosho, ezopolitiko kunye nezakhiwo ezichaphazela imbuyekezo yabatyalo-mali.
Uvavanyo luqhutywa ngekota phakathi kwamakhulu aliqela oosoqoqosho kunye nezinye iingcaphephe zomngcipheko, iziphumo ziqokelelwe zadityaniswa kunye nomlinganiselo wofikelelo lwemali eyinkunzi kunye neenkcukacha-manani zamatyala azimeleyo ukubonelela ngamanqaku engozi ewonke kunye namanqanaba kumazwe ali-174 kwihlabathi liphela.
Ukutolika iinkcukacha-manani kuntsonkothile kuphuculo lwamaxesha ngamaxesha kwindlela yokukora ye-Euromoney ukusukela oko kwaqalwa uphando ekuqaleni koo-1990.
Ukusebenzisa iqonga elitsha, elomeleziweyo lokufumana amanqaku kwikota yesithathu ka-2019, umzekelo, kube nempembelelo enye kumanqaku apheleleyo, ukuguqula ukutolika kweziphumo zonyaka, kodwa kungathethi ngokubanzi ukubekwa kwamanqaku, iindlela zexesha elide okanye ikota yamva nje. utshintsho.
Uvavanyo lunolawulo olutsha olukwinqanaba eliphezulu eline-Switzerland ekhuselekileyo ehamba kwindawo yokuqala ngaphambi kweSingapore, iNorway, iDenmark kunye neSweden yenza intsalela yabahlanu abaphezulu.
ISwitzerland ayinamngcipheko ngokupheleleyo, njengoko kubonisiwe kukungavisisani okutsha malunga nesivumelwano esitsha se-EU, okubangele ukuba amacala omabini abeke izithintelo kwimarike yemasheya.Ikwaqhelekile kumaxesha okukhula kwe-GDP okudodobalayo, kubandakanywa nokucotha okumandla kulo nyaka uphelileyo.
Nangona kunjalo, i-akhawunti yangoku intsalela ye-10% ye-GDP, uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali olukwi-balance, ityala eliphantsi, oovimba be-FX abakhulu kunye nenkqubo yezopolitiko efuna imvumelwano iqinisekisa iziqinisekiso zayo njengendawo ekhuselekileyo yabatyali-mali.
Kungenjalo ibingunyaka oxubeneyo kumazwe aphuhlileyo, aquka i-US neCanada.Zombini ziphawulwe phantsi kakhulu, nangona amanqaku ase-US abonise ukomelela kwikota yesine.
Ubutyebi baseJapan bancipha, ngokuthengiswa kweevenkile kunye nemveliso yefektri ephuma ngaphandle njengoko ukuzithemba kuye kwehla ngasekupheleni konyaka.
Kwi-eurozone, iFransi, iJamani kunye ne-Italiya zavezwa kwiingxabano zorhwebo zehlabathi kunye nomngcipheko wezopolitiko, kubandakanywa unyulo lwase-Italiya, ukungazinzi kumanyano olulawulayo lwaseJamani kunye noqhanqalazo oluchasene nohlengahlengiso eParis lubeka urhulumente waseMacron phantsi koxinzelelo.
Nangona iFransi ifumene indibano ekupheleni konyaka, ubukhulu becala evela kumanani ezoqoqosho angcono kunokuba bekulindelwe, ingcali ezimeleyo yomngcipheko uNorbert Gaillard wawathoba kancinane amanqaku akhe emali kurhulumente, esithi: “Uhlaziyo lwenkqubo yomhlalaphantsi lufanele luphunyezwe, kodwa luya kuba neendleko eziphezulu kunoko. kulindeleke.Ke ngoko, andiboni ukuba umlinganiselo wetyala likarhulumente ukuya kwi-GDP unokuzinza njani ngaphantsi kwe-100% kule minyaka mibini izayo.”
Enye yeengcali zesaveyi ye-Euromoney nguM Nicolas Firzli, usihlalo weWorld Pension Council (WPC) kunye neSingapore Economic Forum (SEF), kunye nelungu lebhodi yeengcebiso kwiWorld Bank Global Infrastructure Facility.
Uphawula into yokuba iiveki ezisixhenxe ezidlulileyo bezikhohlakele ngakumbi kwi-eurozone: “Okokuqala ukusukela ngo-1991 (iMfazwe yokuQala yeGulf), indawo yoshishino yaseJamani (ishishini lemizi-mveliso kunye nezixhobo zoomatshini abaphambili) ibonisa iimpawu ezinzulu zokuhlangana ( ixesha elifutshane) kunye nobuthathaka bolwakhiwo (ixesha elide), kungekho themba libonakalayo kubenzi beemoto baseStuttgart naseWolfsburg.
Ukwenza izinto zibe mbi ngakumbi, iFransi ngoku ibandakanyeke 'kwisicwangciso sohlaziyo lomhlalaphantsi' esathi umphathiswa wepenshoni (kunye noseki weqela likamongameli Macron) warhoxa ngequbuliso phambi kweKrisimesi, kwaye imibutho yabasebenzi bakaMarxist yamisa izithuthi zikawonke wonke, ngentlekele. iziphumo kuqoqosho lwaseFransi. "
Nangona kunjalo, kuye kwaba ngunyaka ongcono kwi-periphery egcwele amatyala, ngamanqaku aphuculweyo eCyprus, eIreland, ePortugal kwaye, ngakumbi, iGrisi emva kokuba urhulumente omtsha wasekunene wamiselwa emva koloyiso lweDemokhrasi entsha kaKyriakos Mitsotakis unyulo jikelele olukhawulezileyo ngoJulayi.
Urhulumente ukwazile ukuphumelelisa uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwakhe lokuqala ngobuncinci bengxabano kwaye unikwe umnyinyiva wetyala ngembuyekezo yokuphumeza uhlaziyo.
Nangona iGrisi isekwinqanaba eliphantsi le-86 kuluhlu lwengozi yehlabathi, ngaphantsi kwawo onke amanye amazwe e-eurozone, ukonga umthwalo omkhulu wetyala, yabona ukusebenza kwayo kakuhle kwezoqoqosho kwiminyaka engaphezu kweshumi kulo nyaka uphelileyo ngokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka ekhuphuka ngaphezu kwe-2% ngokwenyani. kwikota yesibini neyesithathu.
I-Italiya ne-Spain nazo zibhalise iinzuzo zasekupheleni konyaka, ziphendula ukusebenza ngcono kunoko bekulindelwe, icandelo leebhanki ezimbalwa kunye neenkxalabo zamatyala, kunye nemingcipheko ezolileyo yezopolitiko.
Abahlalutyi nangona kunjalo bahlala belumkile malunga nemibono ka-2020. Ngaphandle kweengozi ezichaphazela i-US - kubandakanywa unyulo ngoNovemba, ubudlelwane bayo ne-China kunye nemeko eguqukayo kunye ne-Iran - ubutyebi baseJamani buyaphela.
Isiseko sayo sokwenza izinto sijongene ne-double-whammy yeerhafu zorhwebo kunye nemithetho yokusingqongileyo, kwaye imeko yezopolitiko ayiqinisekanga ngakumbi njengoko ingxabano iye yanda phakathi kwabalondolozi baka-Angela Merkel kunye namaqabane akhe asekhohlo ahlala edemokhrasi phantsi kobunkokeli obutsha.
Imeko yase-UK ihleli ixakile, nangona iingcali zomngcipheko ziye zathatha iziphumo zolonyulo jikelele zibonelela ngesininzi esomeleleyo kuBoris Johnson's Conservatives kunye nokususa imiqobo yezomthetho.
Iingcali ezininzi, kubandakanya uNorbert Gaillard, ziphucule amanqaku azo kuzinzo lukarhulumente wase-UK.“Ingqiqo yam kukuba urhulumente wase-Bhritane ebengazinzanga kwaye exhomekeke kwi-Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party ngo-2018-2019.
Ngoku, izinto zicace ngakumbi, kwaye nangona iBrexit ingalunganga, inkulumbuso u-Boris Johnson unesininzi kwaye amandla akhe okuxoxisana aya kuba makhulu kunangaphambili xa ethethathethana ne-European Union.
Abahlalutyi nangona kunjalo bahlulahlulwe phakathi kwabo, njengoGaillard, babezithembile ngakumbi malunga nembono enikwe isakhelo esinesigqibo sokufezekiswa kweBrexit, kunye nabo bajonga umfanekiso wezoqoqosho kunye nezezimali wase-UK ngononophelo ngokubhekiselele kwizicwangciso zikarhulumente zenkcitho yoluntu kunye nethemba lokungaphumeleli. -isiphumo sokuthengiselana kufuneka uthethathethwano lwezorhwebo kunye ne-EU luphuhlise ngokungathandekiyo.
Nangona kunjalo, uFirzli ukholelwa ukuba abanini bezinto zexesha elide abavela eTshayina - kunye ne-US, Canada, Australia, Singapore kunye ne-Abu Dhabi ('amagunya amakhulu epenshini') - bazimisele ukwenza ukubheja kwexesha elide e-UK, nangona kunjalo. inkcitho yoluntu egqithisileyo kunye nemingcipheko yezemali enxulumene neBrexit kwixesha elifutshane.
Kwelinye icala, i-fiscally orthodox jurisctions 'core-eurozone' efana neJamani, iLuxembourg, iNetherlands neDenmark “inokuba nexesha elinzima kakhulu ukutsala abatyali-zimali bexesha elide kwiinyanga ezizayo”.
Ngolwazi oluthe vetshe, yiya ku: https://www.euromoney.com/country-risk, kunye ne-https://www.euromoney.com/research-and-awards/research malunga nomngcipheko wamva nje welizwe.
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Ixesha lokuposa: Jan-16-2020